If a buyer's certainty of closing, usually a cash buyer's, can decide who gets a home, how would you tell which policy widens access at the lowest cost? The paper compares acquisition caps, fair-share quotas, constant charges and contention-triggered duties in a simulated market, and finds that the answer depends on how access and efficiency are measured.
An efficiency benchmark computed over the buyers still waiting moves with the policy and can reverse the sign of its effect; a two-period example shows why. Access counted over the whole run understates a cohort's gains by up to 2.5 times and reorders the instruments.
The comparison is conditional. Run at New York City proxy values, removing the cash discount lowers the share of owner-occupiers who leave without buying only from 9.8% to 9.5%. The model leaves out strategic bidding, renter welfare and administrative costs. The empirical papers motivate the model without confirming its premise: Who Gets the House? finds that the measured contrast changes with buyer identity and transaction screens; it does not identify the value of closing certainty.
Related methods paper: Auditing policy dependent benchmarks in allocation simulations (PDF) · Code and archive.